Pubblicato in: Confronti - comparisons, Inglese

Issues about the regional public debt

After translating the data about regional public debt I was following the issue on several blogs, mainly in italian florentine. I feel the urge to answer in an ordered manner to some rants I found in related articles. The data I showed in my previous article came from this report (in italian, here a local copy) that worked on the data available at 21 september 2011.

Castrese Tipaldi in “Debito e responsabilità storiche” (debt and historic reponsibilities) claimed that the public debt should be divided among the regions in a different way, recognizing that when the Reign of Sardinia conquered the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies in 1861 – an highly indebted state conquered one having (almost) no debts. This is true.

Then he proposes to leave 2/3 of the italian gold reserves to the regions of Magna Grecia.

Nice try. Magna Graecia (or the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, if you prefer) has an yearly commercial deficit of almost 80 billion Euro. According to Wikipedia the italian state has 2451.8 t of gold quoted at 42,89 €/g (source: Il Sole 24 Ore of 25 august 2012 ) totalling almost 105 billions Euro. They wants 2/3 of it: 70,1 billions.

The current Reign of Two Sicilies will burn their little treasure in few years….

Italian public debt since its founding
Italian public debt since 1950

The main share of italian debt has been made since 70ties, you can read about its growing since 1861 on knowstar.blogspot.it.

While it’s true that That obsession with the prosperity of the kingdom of two Sicilies is pityful. Ok it had no debt. But its economy was abysmally small. Here you may read some data compiled by Adriano Balbi in 1830 (in Annali universali di statistica economia):

State Surface (sqm) Population GDP (francs) GDP per capita
Kingdom of Two Sicilies 31.800 7.420.000 84.000.000 11,3
Kingdom of Sardinia 18.180 3.800.000 60.000.000 15,8
Pope state 13.000 2.590.000 30.000.000 11,6
Tuscany granducate 6.324 1.275.000 17.000.000 13,3
Parma state 1.660 440.000 4.600.000 10,5
Modena state 1.571 379.000 4.000.000 10,6
Lucca 312 143.000 1.900.000 13,3
S.Marino republic 17 7.000 70.000 10,0
Monaco 38 6.500 400.000 61,5
Austriac italy 17.800 4.930.000 122.000.000 24,7
Helvetic italy 1.250 126.000 550.000 4,4
French italy (corsica) 2.852 185.000 1.169.000 6,3
Malta 128 96.000 2.900.000 30,2

There is also a really interesting article from Stéphanie Collet – “A Unified Italy – Sovereign Debt and investors scepticism” – that explains the dynamics of public debts in pre-unitary states (there is an interesting review of this article in italian of Il Sole 24 Ore)

I may argue that Cisalpine Gaul may claim damages for the roman invasion. How far do you want to go in the past? By the way Collet’s study shows that even Kingdom of two Sicilies did actually emitted bonds, i.e. it did had some debts, 32,8 millions francs versus 55,3 of the conquerors.

Let’s be serious, the Magna Greece has benefited from the italian debt. But today, I can list several economic stats showing that today Magna Graecia will sink even with all those gold:

These are all official indisputable data showing the copious, constant money bleeding from the regions of the kindom of two Sicilies.

With such a commercial deficit all those gold will be spent in few years. Then what? I wonder where all the billion Lombardy pays in fiscal surplus go….

Ciccio argued that they took the fantastic italian public debt and divided it by capita, saying that it’s obvious that that debt is too high for the regions of south italy – well he was actually quite more colorful in his florentine. He claimed that Lombardy and the other regions of the valley of Po river shall get most of the debt.

Even in that case, the worst for Lombardy and their neighbors they will shine compared to other countries, like Germany. 

The study cited above proposes four different scenarios:

  1. distributing the debt accordig to regional deficit in the 1996-2009 period (before 1996 it is difficult to get really sound data)
  2. evenly spread on the entire population
  3. evenly spread by regional Gross Domestic Product
  4. an average of the first three scenario.
Billion €
According to 1996-2009 deficits By population By regional GDP intermediate hypothesis
Piemonte 0 132 144 92
Valle d’Aosta 14 4 5 8
Lombardia 0 294 371 222
Trentino-Alto Adige 50 31 40 40
Veneto 0 146 169 105
Friuli Venezia Giulia 51 37 42 43
Liguria 63 48 51 54
Emilia Romagna 0 131 159 97
Toscana 0 111 123 78
Umbria 22 27 25 25
Marche 0 46 47 31
Lazio 141 170 200 171
Abruzzo 40 40 32 38
Molise 29 9 8 15
Campania 311 173 110 198
Puglia 255 121 79 152
Basilicata 53 17 13 28
Calabria 210 60 40 103
Sicilia 408 150 100 220
Sardegna 148 50 39 79
ITALIA 1798 1798 1798 1798
NORD 179 823 981 661
CENTRO 164 354 395 304
SUD 1455 620 421 832
€ per capita
According to 1996-2009 deficits By population By GDP intermediate hypothesis
Piemonte 0 29655 32302 20652
Valle d’Aosta 108782 29655 38649 59029
Lombardia 0 29655 37413 22356
Trentino-Alto Adige 48692 29655 38649 38998
Veneto 0 29655 34296 21317
Friuli Venezia Giulia 41637 29655 33845 35046
Liguria 39185 29655 31514 33451
Emilia Romagna 0 29655 35867 21840
Toscana 0 29655 32693 20783
Umbria 24533 29655 27599 27262
Marche 0 29655 30344 20000
Lazio 24683 29655 34957 29765
Abruzzo 30149 29655 24020 27941
Molise 91438 29655 23470 48188
Campania 53261 29655 18933 33950
Puglia 62238 29655 19409 37100
Basilicata 89924 29655 21702 47093
Calabria 104533 29655 19702 51297
Sicilia 80852 29655 19863 43457
Sardegna 88589 29655 23279 47174
Italy 29655 29655 29655 29655
NORD 6457 29655 35341 23817
CENTRO 13693 29655 33084 25477
SUD 69573 29655 20147 39791

Let’s compare the average scenario with other countries:

Public debt over GDP (2010 estimates)
ITALY 120,7
Trentino-Sud Tirol 117,7
IRLANDA 112
Lazio 107,7
PORTOGALLO 101,7
BELGIO 97
Central Italy 96,1
Euro Area 87,7
France 84,7
Piemonte 84,4
United Kingdom 84,2
Germany 82,4
U.E. 82,3
Po Valley (North italy) 82,1
Marche 80,9
Toscana 78
Hungary 75,2
Veneto 74,8
Austria 73,8
Emilia Romagna 73,3
Lombardia 71,9
Spain 68,1

Pretty neat feat, isn’t it? Germany does not look so good anymore, compared to Lombardy…. I do recognize things have changed since 2010.

I will soon compare the best scenario for the Kingdom of Two Sicilies (aka Magna Graecia): it will be quite interesting to show public debt sharing by regional Gross Domestic Product even keeping in count that fiscal evasion is much more widespread in the south….

Autore:

La Dea Tutte mi ha inviato a combattere il demone dell'evanescenza, fin dalla pianura che non deve essere nominata

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